The primary focus of tobacco regulatory policy is to reduce smoking rates. The European Tobacco Product Directive was introduced this year with the goal of reducing prevalence across Europe by 2% over five years; Australia has made reduction of its smoking rate to 10% by 2018 a key target within its National Strategy; and Ireland and New Zealand have each pledged to reduce smoking rates to under 5% by 2025.

This paper will evaluate the extent to which these goals are realistic, and will investigate the facts behind the hype to consider what impact initiatives such as smoking bans, taxation, and the recent introduction of plain packaging in Australia have really had on smoking rates. All our interpretations use statistical models and visual representations based on publically available data.

The decline in smoking rates has been levelling off for the last ten years in most developed countries, including Ireland, Australia, Canada and the UK which are all held to be leaders of tobacco regulation. According to a 2013 survey from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Greece and Ireland have the highest smoking rates in the European Union, whereas Sweden has the lowest – at just 12.5% for men and 14.3% for women in 2011. A new OECD survey is expected later in 2014 and it will be interesting to see whether these trends have continued.

This study will also consider whether there is a relationship between youth smoking and adult smoking rates. The data appears to suggest that these factors are independent of each other, which would have a number of implications for tobacco control. For example, different approaches may be needed for regulating smoking in young people and adults, and this also serves to contradict any notion that tobacco companies rely on youth smoking for future sustainability.

As far as adult smoking rates are concerned, there has been a consistent decline in smoking in countries such as Sweden and Norway where snus is widely available. Not only are the current smoking rates already low, but these rates of decline in smoking look set to continue. The Swedish and Norwegian experiences may indicate the potential of alternative products for tobacco consumers, including the e-vapour sector in the US and Europe.